Israel destroyed an Iranian facility capable of crucial research into nuclear weapons during their direct attack on Iran in October, according to a recent report by Axios. However, the cheers that Iran’s march to the bomb was halted may be premature, as a nuclear weapons expert is asking—with an implied warning—can Iran quickly recover from the blow?
Per the Axios report on Friday, which cited United States and Israeli sources, the Jewish State hit nuclear weapons research equipment in the Parchin military base at a site known as Taleghan 2. The technology targeted is used to detonate the enriched uranium in a nuclear weapons explosion. This is a key piece to one of three crucial steps to nuclear weapons, along with the uranium itself and a missile or bomb capable of carrying the radioactive payload. With Iran having made much progress on the other two components, achieving a transportable detonation capacity is one of the last moves Iran needs to achieve before they can break out toward nuclear weapons.
Israeli officials told Axios that the destroyed tech will need to be replaced, which Israel believes they can track if that happens. One official called it a “bottleneck” preventing Iran from making the move to build nuclear weapons. While the report indicated Iran had not yet made that move and the research equipment was dormant, its loss seriously hampers Iran’s ability to push for the bomb.
At least, that’s the belief by officials in the report. Nuclear weapons expert and President of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) David Albright isn’t so sure. In a series of posts to X (formerly Twitter), Albright questioned whether Iran will find it easier to recover from the Israeli blow than may be expected now.
Citing pictures showing similar, or perhaps the same, equipment from another Iranian facility, Albright asked: “Is this equipment in pics outside Iran’s ability to make itself or does, as Axios reported, Iran have to replace the equipment from abroad? If the latter, Israel’s attack destroyed valuable equipment to nuclear weapons production that is time consuming to replace.
“But how much plastic explosive are in storage elsewhere, ready to be used in a shock wave generator? Each one does not require that much plastic explosives.”
Albright also questioned whether the report conflated Iranian efforts at two different sites. Albright, in a research report posted to ISIS’ website on Thursday, notes that Iran has potentially three different research sites at the Parchin base, including new construction that was not reportedly attacked and has potential application for explosives testing. While ISIS has observed activity at the site, Albright notes that the personnel there appear to have independence. Therefore, rather than indicating an official Iranian move to build nuclear weapons, the activity can be viewed as potential preparation work setting the stage for that step if and when that decision is made.
In his posts to X, Albright notes that he “did confirm that activities at Taleghan 2, whatever they were recently, were nuclear weapons related,” although he also was hesitant to commit to how directly related that activity is to nuclear weapons development, saying it “needs more clarification.”
The attack comes after former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett had called for Israel’s much anticipated October strike—a counterattack to a massive Iranian missile strike on Israel—to destroy Iran’s nuclear program. In addition, current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it clear Iran’s nuclear threat remains their top priority.
in a press release around the October Israeli strike in comments translated from Hebrew, Netanyahu said, “Halting the nuclear program has been—and remains—our chief concern. I have not taken, we have not taken and we will not take, our eyes off this objective. Obviously, I cannot detail our plans to achieve this supreme goal.”
More of those details appear to have emerged in the Axios report. While Albright was cautious about its ultimate impact, he did agree with a US official in the report that Israel’s attack on a top-secret facility sends a clear message.
Posted Albright, “Whatever was destroyed in Taleghan 2, its destruction by Israel sent a signal and a warning to Iran; the Iranian leadership should heed both.”
(By Joshua Spurlock, www.themideastupdate.com, November 17, 2024)